ANALYSIS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF ACTIVITIES OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT BODIES ON THE ORGANIZATION OF LIFE SECURITY OF TERRITORIAL COMMUNITIES OF MUNICIPALITIES BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELING

Abstract

With the reform of decentralization, the problem of effective activity of local self-government bodies in the organization of safety of vital activity of territorial communities became actual. The article provides a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of local governments in organizing the safety of life of local communities on the basis of econometric modeling. The dynamics is calculated and presented: the number of fire departments of Lviv region, the number of firefighters and rescuers of Lviv region, the number of emergencies in Lviv region, the number of fires and explosives in Lviv region, the number of deaths due to emergencies, fires and dangerous events in Lviv region, the number of injured situations, fires and dangerous events in the Lviv region, the number of visits of fire departments of the Lviv region, information work of fire and rescue services of the Lviv region in the media, financing, logistics and the amount of fines imposed by the fire and rescue services of Lviv region. Modeling of the dynamics of the process and efficiency of local governments in the organization of life safety of territorial communities of Lviv region was carried out on the basis of calculations performed using the software product Statistic. Since the main efforts of the rescue services are focused on creating conditions for safe living, it is determined: the dependent variable - Y1 (indicator of the number of people killed in emergencies and dangerous events); controlled factors influencing the dependent variable (XF - the amount of allocated funds and logistics from the state budget, XP - the amount of fines imposed, XC - the number of persons prosecuted, XI - the number of messages in the media, XB - the number of messages in print information products, XS - the number of persons who have undergone appropriate training, XW - the total number of persons of emergency services. Analysis of annual statistics on fires and dangerous events in the Lviv region for 1991–2017 using stepwise regression of the least squares method allowed to determine the most influential factors for building a multifactor regression model of emergency prevention. By searching the composition of the set of factors and separating statistically unaffected factors, the optimal model formed by the variables XW, XF, XI, which have the best adequacy indicators, is determined. Also, the coefficient of determination is 0.72. The values ​​of F- and t-statistics indicate both the adequacy of the model as a whole and the statistical significance of the intersection and coefficients. The histogram of the distribution of residues (statistically unaffected factors) of the model shows a slight discrepancy with the normal distribution.

The standardized parameters of the model allow comparing the impact of different factors on the dependent variable, and the value of the beta coefficient indicates that the financing of logistics and media coverage has about half the impact on the dependent variable compared to the number of staff. Thus, the factor model confirmed the need to increase the staff of local or voluntary fire and rescue units in the region. Also, in our opinion, it is advisable to encourage fire safety of engineering and technical workers in the voluntary fire brigades, using the positive experience of other countries.